Webinar: Lyceum Society November 2020

Welcome and Introductions: 11:30 AM to 11:40 AM

PRELMINARY PRESENTATION: 11:40 AM to 12:30 PM

Speaker: Clifton Hotvedt

Topic: Drug Pricing

Outline: Discussing drug pricing the day before a contentious general election requires equal parts of clairvoyance, chutzpah, hubris and humility. Nothing about drug pricing over the last four years has been predictable, nor are the prospects after the election regardless of outcome. There were going to be sweeping price reforms, until there weren't. Television ads would have to state the price of drugs (whether wholesale, retail or negotiated wasn’t clear) and then they weren't and the government was going to fund a new generic manufacturer until it didn't. I'll talk generally about the challenges of drug pricing in the context of the components and considerations that inform pricing in the face of cost issues associated "Warp Speed," product liability and manufacturing and the hoped-for COVID-19 medications.

MAIN PRESENTATION: 12:30 PM to 2:00 PM

Speakers: Bill Rosser and Herbert Klitzner

Topic: Prediction - From Prehistoric to New Quantum Modeling

Outline: Prediction evolved in animal brains to predict their potential environments - good or bad. Today prediction is huge - and forecasts create a constant environment for all human societies -- from frequent projections of the weather -- this hour, tomorrow, next week and this winter -- on to larger issues such as the economy (the stock market, depressions, real estate), etc.

We will discuss who is responsible for these forecasts, when are people willing to pay for good predictions, and how they are generated, by whom, and how good are the results. We will explore the role science is playing in making predictions better.

We will reveal good and bad predictions that we each have made professionally - and with what consequences.

You will hear what we see ahead in prediction with vastly more data, better algorithms, and super processing power. Plus our advice on what you personally should consider regarding what you can gain from predictions - but also what to be cautious about as our technical capabilities race ahead. We predict you will enjoy it.

CV: Clif Hotvedt's diverse scientific background reflects his experience in the pharmaceutical industry, as a medical writer at Ives Laboratories and at leading public relations firms including Robert Marston & Associates, Manning Selvage & Lee and Ketchum, where he is vice president emeritus and served as global director of medical & scientific affairs. For 44 years, he has counseled companies on over 100 small molecule drugs, biologicals and devices for indications including cardiovascular disease, rheumatology, metabolic disease, dermatology, central nervous system disease, vaccines, infectious disease and cancer. A New Mexico State University graduate in secondary biology education and journalism, Cliff continues to use his teaching background to develop and present courses on the FDA approval process, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and biostatistics among other topics for coworkers and clients. At our November, 2015 meeting he delivered the main presentation on “The FDA Drug Approval Process”. At our May, 2016 meeting he delivered the “brief” presentation on “How the new PCSK9 Cholesterol-Lowering Drugs work”. At our April, 2017 meeting he spoke on “How to read a Drug Label” (a Main presentation); at our June, 2018 meeting he delivered an “Initial” presentation on “Biosimilars: the New "Generics”?; at our May, 2019 meeting he delivered a presentation on “The Human Microbiome;" and at the October 2020 meting he spoke about 'Artificial Intellligence and Drug Development (a main presentation)."

CV: Herb Klitzner received his bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Chicago and his M.Phil degree in Educational Psychology from the CUNY Graduate Center, with a specialty in Cognitive Science and Computer Science.

In his career in computer technology, he has programmed solutions to cutting edge scientific, business, and educational projects, including the construction of the original World Trade Center foundation walls; co-created a Computer Center for Visually Impaired People at CUNY/ Baruch College; and served as a national market analyst successfully forecasting the dramatic growth of the personal computer market at its inception; and has written articles and presentations on a variety of topics including the history of tolerance, social responsibility, and mathematical cultural development. He serves on the steering committees of the Louis Armstrong Center for Music and Medicine.

Herb has spoken to the Lyceum Society on many occasions. At our June 2015 meeting he spoke on Quaternions: The Phoenix Bird of Mathematics. A version of this talk was recently published as the first chapter of a comprehensive book on orientation measurement, Multisensor Attitude Estimation. At our June 2016 meeting, he spoke on Social Robots and Compassion. At our January 2017 meeting he presented 1600s European Circles of Open-Minded Thinking and Tolerant Living. At our May, 2018 meeting he spoke on: Michael Polyani: Personal Knowledge and Personal Science.

CV: Bill Rosser : Bill retired nine years ago from Gartner, Inc., Stamford, CT, the worldwide top-ranked advisory firm providing guidance to corporations regarding their use of information technology. As a Gartner VP and Distinguished Analyst, he spent 29 years writing, speaking and advising clients about effective use of IT He studied Basic Engineering at Princeton University, and after work in telecommunications in San Francisco, returned to Harvard Business School and graduated with Distinction in 1962. In 1969 he formed his own start-up in data processing based on the new electronic cash registers, and after a merger, worked in strategic planning for Perkin-Elmer and Exxon Enterprises prior to Gartner.

Today Bill is active as an architectural walking tour guide (Grand Central Terminal and the NoHo Historic District), and is a founding member of "Reform Elections Now" (with fellow HBS grads) promoting vital improvements in the election processes such as Ranked Choice Voting. See 'reformelectionsnow.org'. He spoke to the Lyceum Society on "Local Museums of Interest to Scientists and Engineers" in January, 2015. He also chaired previous sessions of the Lyceum Society on discussions of timely interest. These were conducted in October, 2016; March, 2018; and March, 2019; and he proposed and introduced the topics in 2016 and 2019. He led the discussion on : "The Maturing Internet: Benefits and High-risk Disadvantages" at the Lyceum Society meeting on March, 2019.