Curbing New York’s Recent Surge in Flu Cases
New York State is in a record-breaking stretch of seasonal influenza. Here’s why and what you can do to protect yourself and those around you.
Published January 6, 2026
By Syra Madad, D.H.Sc., M.Sc., MCP, CHEP
Two weeks ago, the State Department of Health reported 71,123 lab-confirmed flu cases in a single week, the highest weekly total since the state began tracking comparable data in 2004.
A week later, reported cases fell by 32% to about 49,000 yet flu hospitalizations rose to up by 24% to 4,546. Hospitalizations are a downstream signal, people often get sick, try to recover at home, and often seek emergency care days later if symptoms worsen. Case counts, in contrast, depend on who tests, where they test, and reporting delays, patterns that can change sharply around holidays.
It is also too early to declare we are past the peak. In the U.S., flu activity most often peaks between December and February (most commonly February), and substantial activity can continue beyond that.
New York City shows a similar pattern: high respiratory-illness activity, a modest easing in visits, and steady pressure on hospital admissions. For the week ending Dec. 27, respiratory-illness diagnoses made up 22.22% of emergency-department visits (down from 23.75%), while respiratory-illness hospitalizations from the ED were essentially flat at 14.66%.
A National Trend
Nationally, this is not just a New York story. Flu activity remains elevated in nearly every part of the country, with 48 jurisdictions now reporting high or very high levels of influenza-like illness. So far this season, an estimated 7.5 million Americans have been infected, leading to 81,000 hospitalizations and more than 3,000 deaths, including eight pediatric deaths.
This surge comes amid declining vaccination coverage, particularly among children. Only about 42% of U.S. children have received the flu vaccine so far this season, down from roughly 53% at the same point in 2019–2020. At the same time, federal health officials have just announced revising the childhood immunization schedule so that seasonal flu vaccination would fall under “shared clinical decision-making,” meaning families would be encouraged to make the choice after a consultation with a clinician rather than through a straightforward, routine recommendation. I worry that adding this extra step could reduce uptake by introducing delays and access barriers, let alone confuse parents, an especially consequential risk during a severe flu year.
The concern is not theoretical: the 2024–2025 flu season recorded 280 pediatric deaths, the highest since national reporting began in 2004 (excluding the 2009 pandemic). Nearly 9 in 10 of those children were not fully vaccinated, underscoring how vaccination gaps translate into preventable loss.
Three Things You Should Know:
- Why is New York seeing so much flu?
This season is being driven largely by influenza A(H3N2), which has historically been harder on older adults and can be more challenging for vaccines to match perfectly. Add winter reality, crowded indoor time in schools, transit, workplaces, and holiday gatherings, and you get faster spread. New York has also been hit early, before some other states, which makes the surge feel abrupt. - What is “subclade K”?
Subclade K is a genetic branch of influenza A(H3N2) that accounts for a substantial share of the H3N2 viruses CDC has characterized this season. For the public, the key point is that subclade K has changes in immune “target” sites that can reduce how well prior immunity whether from past infection or vaccination, recognizes it, leaving more people susceptible. What we cannot conclude from that is that it is inherently a “super flu” or universally more lethal. A more accurate interpretation is that greater susceptibility can drive higher case counts and, in turn, more hospitalizations and deaths, even if the virus is not intrinsically more virulent. - Does the flu shot prevent flu and is it “matched” this year?
The scientific answer is: sometimes, but not always. Flu vaccines reduce the risk of infection, but effectiveness varies by year and subtype. In a year with viral “drift,” protection against getting infected and spreading toothers can drop. But the core public-health goal remains: prevent severe disease. Even in mismatch years, vaccination is associated with meaningful protection against hospitalization and death.
What to Do Now
- Get vaccinated if you haven’t. Flu activity is still high.
- Reduce spread: stay home when sick, improve ventilation for gatherings, and consider a well-fitting mask in crowded indoor settings.
- If you’re sick and high-risk (young children, adults 65+, pregnancy, chronic conditions) or getting worse, seek care early. Prescription antivirals work best when started as soon as possible.
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